South African motorists got some much-needed fuel price relief at the beginning of July, but the outlook for August is looking less positive.
The latest daily snapshot released by the Central Energy Fund (CEF) on July 12 shows a small over-recovery of nine cents for 95 Unleaded petrol and six cents for 93 ULP.
Usually this month-average would point towards a modest decrease next month, but the latest daily data shows a small under-recovery is developing for 93 Unleaded petrol, which could eventually lead to a price increase if the trend is not reversed in the coming weeks.
The opposite is true of the current diesel price outlook. While the month-average points to price increases of between three cents (50ppm) and 18 cents (500ppm), an over-recovery is reflecting in the latest daily data, which could shift prices into positive territory by month-end.
Either way, unless there are any major shocks in the exchange rate or international oil prices, the August fuel price adjustments are likely to be somewhat minor, regardless of whether we see increases or decreases.
On July 4, the price of 93 Unleaded petrol dropped by R1.05 to R22.86, while 95 Unleaded fell by 99 cents, slashing prices at the pumps down to R23.26 in Gauteng and R22.47 at the coast.
Diesel dropped by between 30 cents (500ppm) and 24 cents (50ppm).
The fuel price is adjusted at the beginning of each month, with the exchange rate and international oil prices in the preceding month primarily determining the price movements.
July has seen the price of Brent Crude oil rise slightly, from its average of $82.24 (R1,516) in June to hover around the $85 mark during the first two weeks of July.
However, the rand has so far come to the rescue, appreciating to just below the R18 mark to the US Dollar by July 12. The local currency averaged R18.44 last month.