On the balance of things, the Lions should have very little to fear when they face the Newcastle Falcons this weekend, and therein lies the biggest danger – complacency.
Truth be told, the English club are in dire need of a win.
They are a desperate bunch that have failed to claim any victory in the Premiership, going down in all eight of their matches in that tournament.
That losing streak was further compounded by a valiant loss at home to Montpellier last weekend in the EPCR Challenge Cup.
Skimming over Newcastle’s stats makes for some grim reading.
It shows malfunctioning set pieces with a success rate in the low 80% – a near-fatal deficiency in the modern game.
They have managed to score 117 points, but have conceded 259 in the elite division – an indication of how poor their attack, conversion rate, discipline and defence has been during their campaign.
Admittedly, the Lions are standing in ninth place in the United Rugby Championship, but the Falcons face a team full of belief and building in confidence – no doubt aided by a shock Challenge Cup win over Perpignan in France this past weekend by a fringe team – on the highveld for the first time ever this weekend.
Regardless of that successful opening result in the Challenge
Cup, the Lions are the third-best attacking team in the URC, the third-best scrummaging unit, possess the fourth-best line-out, and have the second-best discipline stats in the tournament.
Their groundwork is improving as well, and they are becoming a dangerous unit at the breakdown in forcing turnovers.
Defensively, both teams have a lot of work to do – that cannot be overlooked – which certainly remains the Lions’ biggest bugbear.
Nevertheless, all indications point to a home victory against Newcastle at Ellis Park on Saturday (5.15pm kick-off).
The clash will represent the final game for the Joburgers this year before they return for an encounter against the Sharks in the new year.
That could mean that they might suffer from laaste vak sindroom (last subject syndrome) – the acceptance that you have to finish off well in a final assignment, but lack the mental fortitude and will to do so.
That will be the Lions’ major challenge for this game – pitching up against a struggling team, looking for an upset, in their last game of 2023, with the festive season on the horizon.
Lions assistant coach Ricardo Loubscher, however, believes that his highly motivated team won’t suffer from such a malaise, while explaining the routine for the week.
Said the former Springbok utility back: “The big focus this week is all about how we can take another step forward, how we can keep the momentum.
“We feel we are in a good space in terms of the results. There is happiness around the team.
“Although it has been tough with our preparation, with the squad split in Perpignan and with some okes staying behind, we must get our preparation right and nail whatever we need to nail in terms of roles and the plan.
“Part of the reason for myself and Barend (Pieterse, forwards coach) staying behind,” he continued, “was to make sure we started well on Monday, installed our plan and got clarity on how we want to play the game.
“On Thursday, we will have all the coaches here and the rest of the squad. Then it will be all about our final prep and making sure we are nailing that.”
The Lions are expected to select a similar match 23 as the one that previously mauled the Dragons and Zebre 49-25 and 61-19.
They will surely pack away the Test match approach that won them the day against Perpignan, and revert to the game plan seen in those two matches, and that promises an exciting running game of rugby against the Falcons.
IOL Sport